Tuesday 15 April 2014

Who will win the 2014 Champions League?

A very long time ago I decided to write an article regarding the relationship between the winner of the Champions League and their respective league positions the previous and winning seasons. 

For example: Chelsea won the Champions League (CL) in 2012 after finishing 2nd in the Premier League (PL) the season before. In 2012, the year Chelsea won the CL, they finished 6th in the PL.

So anyway, I fortuitously discovered the research I did and realised that I had better get the revolutionary statistics I conjured published before they become obsolete!

So here goes...

- Only 47% of CL Winners won their domestic league the same year
- A substantial 72% of CL Winners won their domestic league the season before 
  (i.e. qualifying season)

So how is this reflected amongst the most prolific winners of the CL/European Cup?

Real Madrid 
- 9 Wins_5 Domestic Championships to qualify
- 9 Wins_7 League Championship failures same season

AC Milan 
- 7 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify
- 7 Wins_6 League Championship failures same season

Bayern Munich
- 5 Wins_3 Domestic Championships to qualify
- 5 Wins_2 League Championship failures same season

Liverpool
- 5 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify
- 5 Wins_3 League Championship failures same season

Of course statistics like this are of dubious value and are highly unlikely to display anything other than the most negligible reflection of the future. However, it took a fucking long time to get these stats together and there are plenty more which I am not going to bother to reveal because they proved even less significant than the italicised stats above; so what can we glean from all this pointless effort anyway?

Here are some nonsensical and speculative implications:

- Bayern Munich definitely have a 60% chance of winning it
- Real Madrid have a 77% chance of winning it if they fail to win La Liga = Conundrum
- Athletico Madrid can improve their chance of winning to 37% if they win La Liga
- Chelsea will win it

KTBFFH