Goalkeepers and Winning the Premier League

Some time ago I heard that a football team can only win the Premier League if it has a world-class goalkeeper... So I looked into it for you! 

Below is a list of goalkeepers in the Premier League era who made the most appearances in the winning league team - are they world-class?

In my mind there is no doubt that Peter Schmeichel, David Seaman, Petr Cech and Edwin van der Sar were all world-class keepers. 

Of the others, I would say that Tim Flowers, Fabien Barthez, Jens Lehmann, Joe Hart, David de Gea, Thibaut Courtois and Schmeichel Junior were all good enough. The more recent goalkeepers like Courtois, de Gea, Schmeichel and to an extent Hart could yet mature into incredible goalkeepers.

Therefore we can say that an excellent goalkeeper has nearly always won the Premier League (bar Bosnich).

Conversely, if we look at Manchester United's goalkeepers when they did not win the Premier League, we can see chaff like a fading Fabien Barthez, Tim 'Howler' Howard, Roy 'Cataclysm' Carroll and an inexperienced David de Gea. 

If we take a look at Arsenal, the other previously dominant force in the Premier League, they have suffered with the likes of Vito Mannone, Wojciech Szczesny, Lukasz Fabianski, Manuel Almunia and David Ospina... 

But what does all this subtle analysis mean when divining which teams can win future Premier League titles?

Assuming that an excellent goalkeeper is a given for any League winning team then we can say that the following teams and their goalkeepers are potential winners in the 2017/18 Season:

Chelsea - Thibaut Courtois

Tottenham Hotspurs - Hugo Lloris

Manchester United - David de Gea

or even Leicester City - boy Schmeichel

Arsenal, Liverpool, or Manchester City? Nah they are miles away with their net-guardians!

Think on it football fans, does it ring true?

All the Best!

The Autumn Champions

Chelsea FC's season has gone very well so far. It's even November and 'disaster' has yet to strike! We are top of the league by a meaningful gap and are undefeated in all competitions. We were slightly unfortunate to leave Manchester with only two points and have thoroughly punished the Liverpool clubs. We are playing scintillating football. Wenger has conceded us the title; the only difference being that he actually said it in good time.  Man City are in our eight-point wake and don't look like making it up any time soon. Any other supposed title-challenger is laughably off the pace. 

Bearing all this in mind it is unsurprising that every sports media contributor, whether it be a pundit or journalist, believe Chelsea are sewn-on champions. So obvious is this supposition that the same folk are now naturally wondering if Chelsea can go the League season unbeaten. The narrative is already building up to a cataclysmic crescendo. The storm will break when we lose a game. If this happens whilst there is still a chance that we won't be champions the ensuing media-frenzy might rival the Liverpool parade to the title earlier in the year (until we put a stop to that nonsense). 

Everyone is waiting for us to lose; either to give themselves a glimmer of hope in the League, or so they can start writing incredible trash about a 'crisis'. And frankly, so am I - waiting to lose I mean. I do this because: Firstly, the sooner we lose the sooner the media can take a more even-handed approach towards us. This will lessen the pressure. Secondly, earnestly believing that we will eventually lose is the most I can do to ensure that it does not happen. That's called superstition. The Manager thinking the same is the best surety against complacency (which is our only potential issue according to everyone.) 

So what issues do we have?

Let's talk about our defense. It has been lauded - after all it is the joint second best in the League. However, it sounds better than it is. Look below to see the plain truth:

Best Defensive Records - Goals conceded

1. Southampton - 5
2. Chelsea, Swansea - 11
3. Man City - 12
4. Arsenal, Stoke - 13
5. West Ham, Man Utd - 14

It's good but it's not the best is it? If you include other competitions you see that Chelsea have managed to concede at least one goal in most games. In 17 (undefeated) games we have kept only four clean sheets. They are:

• Leicester h 2-0
• Aston Villa h 3-0
• Arsenal h 2-0
• Maribor h 6-0

Those are all teams that we would expect to get clean sheets against. We also conceded against Strawberry Town. If we return to the former list, we see that Chelsea's defensive results are not dissimilar to that of Swansea, Man City, Arsenal and Stoke. West Ham and Man Utd aren't much worse than us. Southampton are much better than us defensively and they lost their best defender to Liverpool. We should note that what clean sheets we do have were all gained in home games. This means that invariably we have conceded when playing away. It's not a good trend and it will  eventually catch up with us.

Why is this?

Ivanovic has been awesome in attack this season. However, he has been doing so much attacking that he is inevitably doing less defending. This does not mean that he is any less the defender we know and love, it's just that he's not always there anymore. Aggressive full-backs are necessary to help break down parked buses which is great, but the space left behind is an obvious target for opponents. This brings us to one of the men who would fill that space - Gary Cahill.

I like Cahill. He is a humble fella and he was there in Munich. But that does not make him a world-class, or even a great centre-back. When we bought him back in January 2012 did we think we were getting the next great English centre-back? I don't recall feeling that. He hasn't done much wrong, but he is clearly limited and needs Terry next to him to be comfortable. His commitment, physicality and ability to make excellent blocks commend him highly. However, he does not read the game that well because otherwise he wouldn't have to make so many desperate, if incredible, blocks. Furthermore, he is strangely non-committal when an attacker dribbles at him.  A long-term concern would be what happens when Terry retires (which can't be long now). I don't think Cahill can lead our centre-defense, and neither can Happy Zouma. We will need an authoritative replacement for Terry.

Talking about Terry: If we were to lose him we would be in trouble so fingers-crossed for Varane.

Fabregas has been wonderful for us. How many assists already? But again he does come with drawbacks when played next to Matic. He just ain't a defensive-minded player. People ghost past him too easily and then they can confuse Cahill to score. Personally, I feel the trade-off is well worth the while - long may Fabregas play for Chelsea.

Negative though the above has been, I think it important to highlight the reality that our defense has room for improvement. Comparisons to our team that only lost one game 04/05 in the League are quite farcical. That team could win one nil easily. This team, as we saw in Manchester, can't. If we had avoided conceding in Manchester I might be here joining with, rather than disproving the hype.

The Attacking Side

We are playing the best 'anti-football' in the League. Bus to Bugatti? People forget how we played great football at the start of last season - but that only culminated in a 2-3 defeat away to Stoke. Assaidi who? Then we got pragmatic and almost won the League.

Honestly, I do not have many concerns regarding our attack. We have wonderful team goals and plenty of talented individuals who can change a game. We might even be able to suffer an absence of Hazard. What we can't afford to lose for any period of time is Costa. The goal-threat just isn't substantially there without him. For me, Drogba has lost his touch and pace so isn't much use apart from as a fire-fighter for stoppage-time corners. But I think Remy is a perfectly adequate stand-in when he gets fit again.

Champions elect are found in Spring, not Autumn. Let's count our trophies when they are in the cabinet, not the newspapers.

Who will win the 2014 Champions League?

A very long time ago I decided to write an article regarding the relationship between the winner of the Champions League and their respective league positions the previous and winning seasons. 

For example: Chelsea won the Champions League (CL) in 2012 after finishing 2nd in the Premier League (PL) the season before. In 2012, the year Chelsea won the CL, they finished 6th in the PL.

So anyway, I fortuitously discovered the research I did and realised that I had better get the revolutionary statistics I conjured published before they become obsolete!

So here goes...

- Only 47% of CL Winners won their domestic league the same year

- A substantial 72% of CL Winners won their domestic league the season before 

  (i.e. qualifying season)

So how is this reflected amongst the most prolific winners of the CL/European Cup?

Real Madrid 

- 9 Wins_5 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 9 Wins_7 League Championship failures same season

AC Milan 

- 7 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 7 Wins_6 League Championship failures same season

Bayern Munich

- 5 Wins_3 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 5 Wins_2 League Championship failures same season

Liverpool

- 5 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 5 Wins_3 League Championship failures same season

Of course statistics like this are of dubious value and are highly unlikely to display anything other than the most negligible reflection of the future. However, it took a fucking long time to get these stats together and there are plenty more which I am not going to bother to reveal because they proved even less significant than the italicised stats above; so what can we glean from all this pointless effort anyway?

Here are some nonsensical and speculative implications:

- Bayern Munich definitely have a 60% chance of winning it

- Real Madrid have a 77% chance of winning it if they fail to win La Liga = Conundrum

- Athletico Madrid can improve their chance of winning to 37% if they win La Liga

- Chelsea will win it

KTBFFH

We Want The Cup, Not The Ball

UEFA's Technical Report of each year's Champions League is always an interesting read for football fans. Given that CFC won last year's competition, I thought I'd peruse the report and pick out any salient points relevant to CFC fans:-

UEFA think Drogba's goal against Napoli was the fourth best goal from open-play in the whole competition (125games).Check out the highlights of that most epic of matches and see what you think.

Furthermore, UEFA reckon Drogba's glorious headed goal against Bayern Munich in that wonderful final was the fifth best set-play goal. Check it out - it's awesome. 

When talking about the prevalence of midfield screens and the final:
 
"Chelsea's John Obi Mikel provided a classic example of a player who excelled at breaking up opposition attacks in a central area and initiating his team's response." Mikel is widely under-rated and sometimes over-rated - nice to see UEFA at least recognise his performance.

When talking about emotional intensity:

"Big games require big players, and the ability to master emotions becomes a major asset. The 2011/12 season confirmed that one of the basic requirements [of winners] is above-average mental strength... Chelsea, the 2012 champions, provided a graphic illustration that resilience and mental toughness can be vital ingredients in recipes for success."

UEFA's technical observers traditionally select a team a CL star squad of those players who they thought made outstanding contributions to their team's progress. Quite naturally, some CFC heroes feature:

• Petr 'Penalty-Save' Cech
• Ashley 'Goal-Line Clearance' Cole
• 'Run and Chip' Ramires
• Frank 'Legend of Chelsea' Lampard
• Didier 'Big Game' Drogba

 "Special credit is due to Frank Lampard, who has been a regular in the star squad since the 2005/6 season." Sign him up Roman!

So what were the defining characteristics of this mentally resilient team?

• 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1
• Highly mobile middle-to-front (Mata and Lampard)
• Top-quality crosses, usually by full-backs
• Very strong, aerially, on set-plays: deliveris by Mata and Lampard
• Breaks from the back, especially via David Luiz
• Zonal back-four with Terry the leader
• Imposing goalkeeper (Cech) with good distribution
• Very experienced group: mentally strong
• Slick combination play and incisive passes
• Excellent use of the flanks: goals from cut-backs

UEFA also noted that 10% of all the goals scored during the competition were scored in added-time at the end of both halves. All the three Chelsea goals which knocked out Barcelona were scored in added-time. Really hurt those ones.

CFC averaged 47%  possession (28% in both Barca matches) and 70% passing accuracy. Who cares? "... Chelsea's ultimate victory provided a reminder that dominating the ball offers no guarantee of success."

Gerard Houllier - 'Some teams keep the ball - some keep the result.'
Fabio Capello - 'This Chelsea team never gave up.'

LUVCFC

Chelsea - Champions of Europe

Chelsea have won the Champions League. YES! Those of you familiar with my previous posts will know that I have mentioned just such an event. If Chelsea won the CL, it would give the fans that kind of unadulterated joy which vindicates all the emotional investment of the past. Even now it is still difficult to believe. However, I am sure that in the fullness of time we will come to appreciate what last night's heroics have done for CFC. It is now a club raised above  the majority - Chelsea is now one of the European Cup winners.

     The media however, have been quick to paint it thus: 'Abramovich finally gets what he spent hundreds of millions of pounds for'. This is crass. Certainly it has been no secret that Roman has always wanted the CL Trophy - but doesn't any club with ambitions in the competition? The joy is not limited to Abramovich, who by the way isn't a football-trophy-window-shopper-extraordinaire. He is one man, one fan; just like every other fan of Chelsea. It's just that he has been lucky enough to make a difference. His joy, when Drogba gave him the chance to lift the Cup itself, was not the joy of some banker seeing a long-term investment come good, it was the delirious happiness of a fan. You could see it in the coverage - get on mate!

     The real story of last night was the long voyage which has taken Chelsea to the pinnacle. I don't just mean this season's campaign which has been dramatic in the extreme. I mean the whole series: woefully losing to Monaco after finally beating Arsenal in '04, losing a semi-final to Liverpool under Mourinho in '05, losing the final on penalties to Man United in '08, being robbed by Ovrebo against Barcelona in '09. It is a painful litany. This is why Drogba's words were so poignant when he dedicated the triumph to all the previous Chelsea players and managers he had played with. They all shared in the dream and suffered the disappointments. Their hopes have finally been redeemed.

     And in what style! The media have also been quick to remind us that Chelsea were not the best team in the CL this year. What!? We won the bloody thing didn't we? Is it so easy to forget, that when in a football competition, the aim is to win it? You do not get medals for playing 'pretty' - just ask Arsenal. You get medals for winning. Ever since that remarkable victory over Napoli in the 2nd leg I have felt that Chelsea have been determined to NOT GET BEAT. How many times have we looked down and out? Chelsea have represented England with a whole lot of courage and determination. We looked doomed against Napoli, and most of us hoped that we might at least make a decent effort. But on the night, we hammered them! There's some football for ya. With confidence brimming we despatched Benfica, albeit with a hiccough. Then Barcelona. Oh dear - apparently the best team ever? Certainly the most boring team ever. They couldn't beat us, so given the knockout nature of the tie, we beat them. Pure balls. 

     And then the German giants, Bayern Munich, in their own stadium, who have won it four times already. We defend for our lives and give one up in the 83rd min. That man equalises in the 89th, question answered. We give away a penalty in extra-time - Cech saves, question answered. Penalty shoot-out. We miss our first, they score their first three. Cech saves and Ashley Cole scores to equalise and top off the real man of the match performance, though you can't begrudge it Drogba. Bastian Schweinsteiger - the ultimate German, steps up, and misses. Drogba steps up and the rest is history - it was written he said.

     Ever since the ambition to win the CL became tangible Chelsea has tried manfully and much has been suffered. This time however, we refused to be beaten and won. Managers have come and gone but that hardcore of players have remained, and their determination to win is something that money can't buy. So let's forget money, let's even forget people's perceptions of how football 'should' be played, let us instead consider these: courage, resilience, and ultimate victory.

What is it to be a Football Fan?

There is a double magic to being a Football Fan. Firstly, a fan has a love for the game. How many of you played football during break-time whilst the girls skipped; or played heads and volleys down the park or alley? How many of you would play a game right now if you had the chance and the company to do so? I would.

     This passion is transferred seamlessly into the watching of the game. We who have kicked a ball know how fantastic are the skills and talent of the professionals on display in the upper echelons of Europe's leagues. Good play entertains whilst bad play frustrates. You don't need to be Alex Ferguson to tell the difference between the dire and the divine.

     Yet as satisfying as appreciating the game may be, the real drug of football lies in supporting a team. We do so through thick and thin, until the very end of our lives. Supporting a team represents a massive emotional investment. Every weekend we place our hopes in eleven men over whom we have no influence whatsoever.  If your team wins you are elated, if they lose, then you are miserable. Perhaps you follow a team that tends to win, but when they lose it's all the worse. Or you could support a team that tends to lose, so when they win it's all the more ecstatic. It's a weekly and unconditional gamble. Hardened football veterans take this in their stride, but let me make this point so that it can spread to those who do not follow football: You who do not support a team - you may avoid the catastrophic lows, but you'll never have the chance of the dizzying highs that make the tens of thousands jump to their feet and scream pure joy. 

     When my team wins the Champions League, you'll never get me down.