Who will win the 2014 Champions League?

A very long time ago I decided to write an article regarding the relationship between the winner of the Champions League and their respective league positions the previous and winning seasons. 

For example: Chelsea won the Champions League (CL) in 2012 after finishing 2nd in the Premier League (PL) the season before. In 2012, the year Chelsea won the CL, they finished 6th in the PL.

So anyway, I fortuitously discovered the research I did and realised that I had better get the revolutionary statistics I conjured published before they become obsolete!

So here goes...

- Only 47% of CL Winners won their domestic league the same year

- A substantial 72% of CL Winners won their domestic league the season before 

  (i.e. qualifying season)

So how is this reflected amongst the most prolific winners of the CL/European Cup?

Real Madrid 

- 9 Wins_5 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 9 Wins_7 League Championship failures same season

AC Milan 

- 7 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 7 Wins_6 League Championship failures same season

Bayern Munich

- 5 Wins_3 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 5 Wins_2 League Championship failures same season

Liverpool

- 5 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 5 Wins_3 League Championship failures same season

Of course statistics like this are of dubious value and are highly unlikely to display anything other than the most negligible reflection of the future. However, it took a fucking long time to get these stats together and there are plenty more which I am not going to bother to reveal because they proved even less significant than the italicised stats above; so what can we glean from all this pointless effort anyway?

Here are some nonsensical and speculative implications:

- Bayern Munich definitely have a 60% chance of winning it

- Real Madrid have a 77% chance of winning it if they fail to win La Liga = Conundrum

- Athletico Madrid can improve their chance of winning to 37% if they win La Liga

- Chelsea will win it

KTBFFH

We Want The Cup, Not The Ball

UEFA's Technical Report of each year's Champions League is always an interesting read for football fans. Given that CFC won last year's competition, I thought I'd peruse the report and pick out any salient points relevant to CFC fans:-

UEFA think Drogba's goal against Napoli was the fourth best goal from open-play in the whole competition (125games).Check out the highlights of that most epic of matches and see what you think.

Furthermore, UEFA reckon Drogba's glorious headed goal against Bayern Munich in that wonderful final was the fifth best set-play goal. Check it out - it's awesome. 

When talking about the prevalence of midfield screens and the final:
 
"Chelsea's John Obi Mikel provided a classic example of a player who excelled at breaking up opposition attacks in a central area and initiating his team's response." Mikel is widely under-rated and sometimes over-rated - nice to see UEFA at least recognise his performance.

When talking about emotional intensity:

"Big games require big players, and the ability to master emotions becomes a major asset. The 2011/12 season confirmed that one of the basic requirements [of winners] is above-average mental strength... Chelsea, the 2012 champions, provided a graphic illustration that resilience and mental toughness can be vital ingredients in recipes for success."

UEFA's technical observers traditionally select a team a CL star squad of those players who they thought made outstanding contributions to their team's progress. Quite naturally, some CFC heroes feature:

• Petr 'Penalty-Save' Cech
• Ashley 'Goal-Line Clearance' Cole
• 'Run and Chip' Ramires
• Frank 'Legend of Chelsea' Lampard
• Didier 'Big Game' Drogba

 "Special credit is due to Frank Lampard, who has been a regular in the star squad since the 2005/6 season." Sign him up Roman!

So what were the defining characteristics of this mentally resilient team?

• 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1
• Highly mobile middle-to-front (Mata and Lampard)
• Top-quality crosses, usually by full-backs
• Very strong, aerially, on set-plays: deliveris by Mata and Lampard
• Breaks from the back, especially via David Luiz
• Zonal back-four with Terry the leader
• Imposing goalkeeper (Cech) with good distribution
• Very experienced group: mentally strong
• Slick combination play and incisive passes
• Excellent use of the flanks: goals from cut-backs

UEFA also noted that 10% of all the goals scored during the competition were scored in added-time at the end of both halves. All the three Chelsea goals which knocked out Barcelona were scored in added-time. Really hurt those ones.

CFC averaged 47%  possession (28% in both Barca matches) and 70% passing accuracy. Who cares? "... Chelsea's ultimate victory provided a reminder that dominating the ball offers no guarantee of success."

Gerard Houllier - 'Some teams keep the ball - some keep the result.'
Fabio Capello - 'This Chelsea team never gave up.'

LUVCFC

Chelsea - Champions of Europe

Chelsea have won the Champions League. YES! Those of you familiar with my previous posts will know that I have mentioned just such an event. If Chelsea won the CL, it would give the fans that kind of unadulterated joy which vindicates all the emotional investment of the past. Even now it is still difficult to believe. However, I am sure that in the fullness of time we will come to appreciate what last night's heroics have done for CFC. It is now a club raised above  the majority - Chelsea is now one of the European Cup winners.

     The media however, have been quick to paint it thus: 'Abramovich finally gets what he spent hundreds of millions of pounds for'. This is crass. Certainly it has been no secret that Roman has always wanted the CL Trophy - but doesn't any club with ambitions in the competition? The joy is not limited to Abramovich, who by the way isn't a football-trophy-window-shopper-extraordinaire. He is one man, one fan; just like every other fan of Chelsea. It's just that he has been lucky enough to make a difference. His joy, when Drogba gave him the chance to lift the Cup itself, was not the joy of some banker seeing a long-term investment come good, it was the delirious happiness of a fan. You could see it in the coverage - get on mate!

     The real story of last night was the long voyage which has taken Chelsea to the pinnacle. I don't just mean this season's campaign which has been dramatic in the extreme. I mean the whole series: woefully losing to Monaco after finally beating Arsenal in '04, losing a semi-final to Liverpool under Mourinho in '05, losing the final on penalties to Man United in '08, being robbed by Ovrebo against Barcelona in '09. It is a painful litany. This is why Drogba's words were so poignant when he dedicated the triumph to all the previous Chelsea players and managers he had played with. They all shared in the dream and suffered the disappointments. Their hopes have finally been redeemed.

     And in what style! The media have also been quick to remind us that Chelsea were not the best team in the CL this year. What!? We won the bloody thing didn't we? Is it so easy to forget, that when in a football competition, the aim is to win it? You do not get medals for playing 'pretty' - just ask Arsenal. You get medals for winning. Ever since that remarkable victory over Napoli in the 2nd leg I have felt that Chelsea have been determined to NOT GET BEAT. How many times have we looked down and out? Chelsea have represented England with a whole lot of courage and determination. We looked doomed against Napoli, and most of us hoped that we might at least make a decent effort. But on the night, we hammered them! There's some football for ya. With confidence brimming we despatched Benfica, albeit with a hiccough. Then Barcelona. Oh dear - apparently the best team ever? Certainly the most boring team ever. They couldn't beat us, so given the knockout nature of the tie, we beat them. Pure balls. 

     And then the German giants, Bayern Munich, in their own stadium, who have won it four times already. We defend for our lives and give one up in the 83rd min. That man equalises in the 89th, question answered. We give away a penalty in extra-time - Cech saves, question answered. Penalty shoot-out. We miss our first, they score their first three. Cech saves and Ashley Cole scores to equalise and top off the real man of the match performance, though you can't begrudge it Drogba. Bastian Schweinsteiger - the ultimate German, steps up, and misses. Drogba steps up and the rest is history - it was written he said.

     Ever since the ambition to win the CL became tangible Chelsea has tried manfully and much has been suffered. This time however, we refused to be beaten and won. Managers have come and gone but that hardcore of players have remained, and their determination to win is something that money can't buy. So let's forget money, let's even forget people's perceptions of how football 'should' be played, let us instead consider these: courage, resilience, and ultimate victory.