Who will win the 2014 Champions League?

A very long time ago I decided to write an article regarding the relationship between the winner of the Champions League and their respective league positions the previous and winning seasons. 

For example: Chelsea won the Champions League (CL) in 2012 after finishing 2nd in the Premier League (PL) the season before. In 2012, the year Chelsea won the CL, they finished 6th in the PL.

So anyway, I fortuitously discovered the research I did and realised that I had better get the revolutionary statistics I conjured published before they become obsolete!

So here goes...

- Only 47% of CL Winners won their domestic league the same year

- A substantial 72% of CL Winners won their domestic league the season before 

  (i.e. qualifying season)

So how is this reflected amongst the most prolific winners of the CL/European Cup?

Real Madrid 

- 9 Wins_5 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 9 Wins_7 League Championship failures same season

AC Milan 

- 7 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 7 Wins_6 League Championship failures same season

Bayern Munich

- 5 Wins_3 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 5 Wins_2 League Championship failures same season

Liverpool

- 5 Wins_4 Domestic Championships to qualify

- 5 Wins_3 League Championship failures same season

Of course statistics like this are of dubious value and are highly unlikely to display anything other than the most negligible reflection of the future. However, it took a fucking long time to get these stats together and there are plenty more which I am not going to bother to reveal because they proved even less significant than the italicised stats above; so what can we glean from all this pointless effort anyway?

Here are some nonsensical and speculative implications:

- Bayern Munich definitely have a 60% chance of winning it

- Real Madrid have a 77% chance of winning it if they fail to win La Liga = Conundrum

- Athletico Madrid can improve their chance of winning to 37% if they win La Liga

- Chelsea will win it

KTBFFH

We Want The Cup, Not The Ball

UEFA's Technical Report of each year's Champions League is always an interesting read for football fans. Given that CFC won last year's competition, I thought I'd peruse the report and pick out any salient points relevant to CFC fans:-

UEFA think Drogba's goal against Napoli was the fourth best goal from open-play in the whole competition (125games).Check out the highlights of that most epic of matches and see what you think.

Furthermore, UEFA reckon Drogba's glorious headed goal against Bayern Munich in that wonderful final was the fifth best set-play goal. Check it out - it's awesome. 

When talking about the prevalence of midfield screens and the final:
 
"Chelsea's John Obi Mikel provided a classic example of a player who excelled at breaking up opposition attacks in a central area and initiating his team's response." Mikel is widely under-rated and sometimes over-rated - nice to see UEFA at least recognise his performance.

When talking about emotional intensity:

"Big games require big players, and the ability to master emotions becomes a major asset. The 2011/12 season confirmed that one of the basic requirements [of winners] is above-average mental strength... Chelsea, the 2012 champions, provided a graphic illustration that resilience and mental toughness can be vital ingredients in recipes for success."

UEFA's technical observers traditionally select a team a CL star squad of those players who they thought made outstanding contributions to their team's progress. Quite naturally, some CFC heroes feature:

• Petr 'Penalty-Save' Cech
• Ashley 'Goal-Line Clearance' Cole
• 'Run and Chip' Ramires
• Frank 'Legend of Chelsea' Lampard
• Didier 'Big Game' Drogba

 "Special credit is due to Frank Lampard, who has been a regular in the star squad since the 2005/6 season." Sign him up Roman!

So what were the defining characteristics of this mentally resilient team?

• 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1
• Highly mobile middle-to-front (Mata and Lampard)
• Top-quality crosses, usually by full-backs
• Very strong, aerially, on set-plays: deliveris by Mata and Lampard
• Breaks from the back, especially via David Luiz
• Zonal back-four with Terry the leader
• Imposing goalkeeper (Cech) with good distribution
• Very experienced group: mentally strong
• Slick combination play and incisive passes
• Excellent use of the flanks: goals from cut-backs

UEFA also noted that 10% of all the goals scored during the competition were scored in added-time at the end of both halves. All the three Chelsea goals which knocked out Barcelona were scored in added-time. Really hurt those ones.

CFC averaged 47%  possession (28% in both Barca matches) and 70% passing accuracy. Who cares? "... Chelsea's ultimate victory provided a reminder that dominating the ball offers no guarantee of success."

Gerard Houllier - 'Some teams keep the ball - some keep the result.'
Fabio Capello - 'This Chelsea team never gave up.'

LUVCFC

Post-Defeat Reflections

So. No FA Cup Final day for us. No five in seven - just four in seven. Still, that aint bad is it? And what's more, yesterday was our first defeat in open play in the FA Cup in 30 games. It has to come to and end at one point, so it might as well do so in what looks like being a genuine transition season. This is the point I am trying to make: Think of the context people. 
     
We CFC fans were spoilt rotten last season. Did anybody truly expect that freaky magic to herald a new age of domination? Contest seven trophies this season? Surely, we must get a couple at least? Nonsense. With so many games we were always likely to fail in most if not all of them. 
     
But expectation isn't the only issue facing CFC's First Team: We have a much maligned 'interim' manager who is good at throwing games away, most of our best players are relatively new to the EPL, most of our viable players are still very young and consequently inexperienced, and we seem to be lumbered with a formation (4231) without the necessary players to make it work properly. Benitez, for all his apparent tactical nous, has totally failed to address the problems he inherited. Chelsea's defending is still poor.

Think of it - we played yesterday with another makeshift and novel central defensive partnership. Luiz is obviously no defender - he hasn't got the instinct for it. How he got tagged there God only knows. Ivan has been superb for us but he's probably not used to being in the middle given how well he's done at right-back. Those two are not the future in that position. Chaos reigned in that first-half.

And then we come to the much debated 'double-pivot', whatever that is. These two players are a lot more important than they are given credit for. They are supposed to provide protection to the back four, receive the ball from the back four, and subsequently initiate attacking passes forward. 

The thing is, these two players need to be awesome on the ball. They have to be able to receive and hold the ball in tight places and then make useful forward passes to Mazacar. Our contenders for those positions just can't hack it. City's second goal is the case in point: We start the second half, Mikel and Ramires get pressed, lose the ball, and before you know it Ivan has lost Aguero for the goal. Our holding players neither have the time or the skill to play their role successfully. 

Perhaps Mikel has hope given his strength and good feet, but his passing is way too slow and ineffectual. Ramires is only any good when he's charging about. Lampard is way too busy scoring goals, which is some consolation. (Just play him Benitez - if he gets to 203 it will be a good season!) I'm hoping Oscar and Luiz can make those positions their own if we must insist on 4231.

Other inherent weaknesses? No striker worthy of the name all season. One too many central playmakers behind the 'striker'. Little transitional discipline. No decent central defenders. Vulnerable to counter-attack down the wings. Unless the Amigo's run the show we are screwed. Too many managers LOL. So if we make the Top Four with these obvious problems then it'll be a great achievement.

Anyway. There's always the future. We have a young squad overflowing with talent. Once we get any kind of medium-term managerial stability we will threaten even more than we already have. KTBFFH