There's a funny paradox with England this year. It's thought that in the past, high expectations have been detrimental to England's performances. Now that we're supposed to have low expectations for England, we expect England will do better. The English media is apparentley in tune with 'reality' when it plays this song.
What were the hopes for Group D? It wasn't the toughest group but it was tough nonetheless. France - the old enemy - conjures up all kinds of amusing glances into history: France and England were fighting each other on and off for more than a hundred years at one point; and Napoleon got beat. The result? We drew 1-1 against a team full of quality attacking players.
Sweden - The Bogey Team. This country just causes frustration. Sweden were undeafeated by England in seven competitive matches (I'm sure you already know that) before that date in Kiev. England had beaten them in a recent friendly however. Furthermore, no team had gone eight games unbeaten against England. One is caught thinking: Surely England will win? How long can a run last? And when England are 1-2 down, only to go on to win 3-2, it must be fate. The statistical storyline has come through.
Ukraine - U-who? An ancient star player, but that's it. A vociferous and numerous home crowd. Surely England will get enough at the Donbass to progress? But be careful! It is dangerous to play for a draw. England win 1-0.
What was all the bother about? England came through the group stage undefeated. England nearly always gets through the group stage. Roy's boys are unbeaten in five matches. That's decent form going into a quarter-final. They say it wasn't aesthetically pleasing, but the prettiest thing in football is success. Would you rather win or play 'good' football, whatever that is? England definitely wants to win.
So despite the conscious dampening down of expectations, we find ourselves believing England can defeat Italy and actually win a quarter-final! The last time we saw England win a quarter-final was in 1996. Even with that woeful record we would still be disappointed if England lost. Has everybody forgotten the possibility of defeat? We are giving them the chance that we would give most teams in the quarter-finals. It's 50-50 win or lose, and England does have the quality to make a game a 50-50 chance. It just seems everybody is betting on England. Write England off at your peril, because they have a chance like everyone else does.
If expectations were low before the tournament, then they have certainly risen now that England need only win two games to reach a final for the first time since you know when. This has completely defeated the point of maintaining low expectations.
However, you need not worry. England has not lost in the past because of the media and national expectation. England has lost football matches because that's football. Teams go on awful runs. In the case of international football, the cycles are biannual, so they are relatively rare occasions for a team to find some form. It's difficult out there people.
Plus, it is so very patronising to assume that the ramblings of the media have any real effect on England's players. If those players did not want to win they wouldn't be there. These guys are supposed to be highly paid professionals, whose job it is to play and win football matches. What would they be if a little bit of tabloid effrontery swayed them from the simple fundamentals of their profession? - Not very good professionals. Hopefully, we can assume Roy can tell the difference between the two.
So let's stop pretending to be clever when we profess lower expectations, but then predict England will reach a semi-final for the first time in sixteen years. England could win it next month, or in 2014, or in 2016 or whenever; as long as qualification and group stages are negotiatied as per usual. Let's be patient. Eventually, it will be England's turn, because that's football.
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